Despite the initial excitement last year over the Android operating system and its backing by heavyweight Google, the analysts agreed that ultimately what matters most to buyers is the hardware and the full user experience, and not so much whether it is open source.
Whether Android, because it is open source, helps developers work more easily with manufacturers does not translate into whether the manufacturers are producing phones that have the right look and feel and functions that buyers want to buy, Gold said.
"At the end of the day, the market buys the hardware, not the OS," Enderle said. "You can have a great user interface and all that, but at the end of the day, hardware really matters." Gold added, however, that users don't buy an OS as much as the "total user experience" and not just the hardware.
Samsung has said it will have three Android phones out this year, while LG Electronics, Motorola Inc. and Sony Ericsson have said they back the platform but have not committed to shipment deadlines.
"Now we have to wait on compelling hardware designs," Dulaney added. "The first designs by HTC were not as magical as the iPhone."
Enderle gave credit to Google and the Android movement for working to support the open-source community of developers building applications and improvements for Android. "They have been competitive to Apple's support for developers," he said. "Ultimately, Android will do well if people like the hardware."
Regarding the hardware, Gold said Android and Google need to find a sweet spot in the market, perhaps in between low-end cell phones and high-end smartphones, where there aren't many products. But in the next year, he said Android will probably sell on everything from $99 phones to $399 phones, as manufacturers figure out which market works best.
In the long term, Gold also said Android's success could depend on how much control Google keeps over the operating system. "If Android is true open source, then Google has to give up more control," he said.
