Chrome will be different but won't displace Windows

If successful, Google OS could spawn a whole new class of faster, cheaper, diskless PCs

Will the hardware requirement really be all that different?

Chrome is a great browser, but it still needs Google Gears (which it includes), which still needs local storage, and you'll still want a lot of local cache for other Web assets.  So while the total memory footprint of the OS may be smaller, and boot times will improve dramatically; you'll still need onboard memory (but it's probably safe to say at this point we can forgo a local hard drive).

What are the obstacles to Google's success?

Ubiquitous wireless is still a myth. Let's also note that the data plans for the wireless carriers are still egregiously overpriced for the masses, so we'll either need to see a dramatic price drop in cellular data plans, or more ubiquitous wireless, which will be great, but we'll still need robust disconnected support.

Just because it will be open-sourced doesn't mean it will be great.  Open source also doesn't mean many features will actually find their way back into the OS for most consumers.  It does mean that OEMs will be able to extend the OS to support their own hardware, which is a double-edged sword because that can also lead to compatibility problems.

I was in an airport the other day and my iPhone automatically identified that there was a sign-in page for the airport wireless and cached the required fields so that every time I go back into Sky Harbor airport, it automatically signs me into the wireless.  There's this fanaticism about usability that some companies espouse that I've not seen in the general open source community.

In the end, I do think this is good for Web developers. They'll still be tasked with ensuring their Web sites work well for all browsers  (which will create opportunities for more development tools to help them), but let's just say this ...  it still boggles my mind how many Web sites were designed exclusively for IE.

Will the Google OS appeal to Apple's customers?

I think there is a wildcard here with Apple.  OSX is a stellar operating system; and Apple's ability to make elegant hardware is still heads-and-shoulders above anybody else out there.  And thanks to the iPhone, think of how many new OSX developers there are in the past year alone; If the company was to come out with an OSX-based netbook (and I still have hopes for an Apple game console based on OSX), and you had every one of the App Store developers now writing apps for a portable netbook and/or game console (or even an evolved AppleTV), I think you'd have an unstoppable combination.  Google would have to make the case that the browser experience can be just as good as the app experience, and find a way to let all of those "other apps" be cached.  I think that's a big obstacle.

Will it displace Windows in the enterprise?

Not any time soon.  Not enough corporate applications in most companies are Web-based, and in my experience, most users still have a document-centric view of the world.  They think that in order to create information,  the first step is to launch Microsoft Word.  Microsoft has spent the better part of the last two decades ensuring that people think exactly like this, and has worked feverishly to get SharePoint entrenched in every corporate account so that extricating oneself from this "information exists in Microsoft Office documents" becomes a nearly insurmountable task.

So I don't think the Chrome OS will end Windows desktops in the next few years; I think it will add to the collective total number of Internet devices, and drive some of the changes that may make it possible after a few years to have productivity workers exclusively use a Web-based OS.  I still think Google will need several evolutions of the browser and years of re-education (which Microsoft will fight tooth-and-nail) of end-users to prepare them for this switch.  Some limited users and companies may be able to make the switch sooner (call centers, etc.) but this will depend on hardware manufacturers providing a support model that gives companies a level of comfort when making this switch.

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David Pinkus

Network World
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