In the future," predicts the Web site for Matt Groening's animated show Futurama, "people will live twice as long, computers will die twice as fast."
Rumours of the PC's demise may be premature, but they aren't necessarily exaggerated. No one can say for certain whether the PC will survive the coming onslaught of supersmart alternative computing devices - ranging from wireless phones to household appliances. Such products could make the PC less essential, especially if they're simpler to use and don't crash as often.
In the short run, you can expect PCs to become smaller and more powerful, with thinner and lighter screens. Advances in voice recognition could ultimately make museum relics of your mouse and keyboard. While the ageing PC may undergo some cosmetic nips and tucks, it probably won't disappear altogether - at least not in the near future.
Moore power to you
Moore's Law, based on a 1965 prediction by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, states that processing power will double every 18 months or so. That's been the case since Moore's declaration, and there's no sign that this torrid pace will let up.
"We expect Moore's Law to continue, even 10 years from now," says Intel spokesman Manny Vara. Intel's chip-release road map, which sets the tempo for the industry, calls for 800MHz Pentium III desktop processors in the first half of this year, and 1GHz chips by year's end. AMD plans to produce a 1GHz Athlon processor by October.
Current processor technology will eventually hit a brick wall, though. Researchers agree that existing lithographic techniques for creating silicon chips are limited - you can fit only so many transistors on a silicon wafer.
So let's get small. Really small.
Now you see it ...
Nanotechnology and quantum computing are two areas of research attempting to supplant the silicon chip. Still largely theoretical, these concepts involve using molecular, or even subatomic, particles as logic components. Instead of relying on circuits to perform calculations, computers would use the position of individual atoms or spinning electrons to crunch numbers, creating extremely powerful "microscopic" computers that would leave today's machines in the subatomic dust.
But what good is a microscopic PC? Robert Morris, director of IBM's Almaden Research Centre, says there are certainly practical applications for a minuscule computer - but, of course, not one that small. "Rather than making these things so tiny that you inhale [them] by mistake," Morris says, "we're putting effort into wearable computers." Microscopic computing would require very little power - perfect for a tiny, wearable PC such as a computing wristwatch, one idea that the research centre is pursuing (see "Next Ultraportables", page 60). And, says Morris, quantum computing power would be virtually limitless. It would allow for "massively parallel" computations of the sort foreshadowed by Deep Blue, the supercomputer that beat world chess champion Gary Kasparov in 1997.
Will you need this much brainpower to run Microsoft Office 2005? Probably not; but potential applications for number-crunching on this scale could include heavy-duty tasks such as weather forecasting and genetic engineering.
Display's the thing
The near future of display technology can be summarised in three letters: LCD. Flat-panel LCD monitors have several advantages over CRTs: they're lighter, smaller and capable of higher resolution. Unfortunately, for the next few years at least, LCDs will be prohibitively expensive for many users. Bob O'Donnell, research manager for PC displays with market research firm IDC, anticipates that 15in LCDs won't hit the $1000 price point (down from the current $2000) until 2003. And they will still cost more than CRTs.
Nevertheless, flat panels are the future, and at least one company is looking to take them to the next level. Russ Wilcox is co-founder and vice president of E Ink, a company that aims to produce flexible, paper-thin displays within five years. E Ink's Immedia technology consists of liquid ink embedded in paper-thin plastic sheets. Microcapsules contain the ink, along with tiny white particles that respond to electrical impulses. A wireless antenna chip in the "paper" transforms radio waves into text and images.
Currently, E Ink is field testing display signs in JC Penney department stores in two US states. The signs - measuring 1.2 square metres and made of foam core and plastic - receive an electric impulse that causes the text and images to change. The company also plans to create an electronic book within five years, with flexible, plastic "pages" that could display downloaded text and erase and reprint themselves. "[The book] would have hundreds of pages you can thumb through, in which all of the text can change," Wilcox says. Attach the book to your PC, and it will download whatever you want to read.
IBM's Morris expects displays to evolve in another way: instead of smaller, 2D displays, he envisions bigger, 3D images. "One obvious extension would be the projection display," he says. "You could project right onto the walls and live in a sea of data [that surrounds you]." Morris predicts 3D displays for games, entertainment, and even medicine (perhaps offering doctors much more comprehensive views of the body through 3D CAT scans and X-rays, for example). Initially, such displays would be projected into glass or plastic cubes, but eventually they would be able to stand on their own.
Will drives thrive?
One impediment to generating 3D displays is the tremendous amount of code required to store and project them. Fortunately, as quickly as processors are advancing, storage technology is moving even faster.
"Right now [hard drive capacity] is increasing at more than 100 per cent a year, and I think that'll keep up for the next handful of years," says IDC's research manager for disk-drive storage, Danielle Levitas. By combining magnetic and new forms of optical storage technology, hard drives capable of holding 100 gigs per platter should ship by 2005, Levitas says.
Will we need all this storage if our lives become Internet-based? Morris says that if storage technology outpaces communication technology, it makes sense to keep data retrieval local. But if communication technology moves faster, remote servers will be the way of the future. Rather than storing data on computing devices, we'd grab what we needed from online storage depots. Imagine keeping your music collection online and downloading Tony Bennett and Limp Bizkit whenever you want, using portable players and MP3 files. Already, virtual Web drives like IDrive.com and FreeDrive.com offer up to 25MB of free storage.
Morris also envisions storage in another dimension. "We're very interested in the idea of holographic storage," he says. "Instead of storing magnetic bits on a disk's surface, we're going to the third dimension. By using lasers and their interference patterns, we're able to store information in a crystal and read it at a rapid speed." Holographic storage could produce faster data transfers and more efficient searches by using minute changes in light angles to scan vast amounts of data at once.
This is no pipe dream. Holographic storage already exists in research labs, Morris says. Its capacities approach those of today's biggest hard drives, and data transfer rates reach 1GB per second. The technology is so expensive, though, that it will be several years before consumers can expect to see any practical holographic storage products on the market.
FutureSpeak
Voice recognition is often trumpeted as the most natural interface for personal computers, and it continues to be one of the busiest areas of development in the industry. Louis Woo, president and general manager of speech technology powerhouse Lernout & Hauspie, says that hardware and software technologies have reached the point where speech input can be speaker-independent - that is, it requires no user training. Building on advances made in both hardware and software noise-cancellation technology, he says, omnidirectional computer microphones are emerging that can pick out voice commands from background clatter in a room. Woo expects voice interface systems to be part of everyday computer use within the next three to five years.
The touchy-feely PC
Computers are also quickly becoming adept at recognising faces, tracking gazes, and even sensing moods. IBM's Blue Eyes research program is built around such biometric technologies. "One of the things we're interested in is attentive user interfaces," IBM research director Morris says. "These are interfaces that pay attention to you as you pay attention to them."
One developing technology, gaze tracking, involves a computer camera mounted to your display, which follows the movement of your irises. Depending on where your eye focuses on the monitor, the computer "senses" what information you want and calls it up without requiring you to click a hyperlink.
Advanced face-recognition systems will have other applications as well. For example, an always-on video camera may be used to scan your face every time you sit down to type. If an unauthorised person tries to use your system, your keyboard will lock up. Or recognition systems may further customise your PC experience. "Your display could adjust the font size depending on where you are in the room," Morris says. "It could recognise the faces of various members of your family, and give customised information at a glance."
Another Blue Eyes project is a computer mouse that senses your moods. It will gauge a user's emotional state by measuring pulse, temperature, and skin responses through the fingertips. Potential applications, developers say, include video games and market research. The mouse could tell game-makers when a player is excited or frightened, and let marketers know how questionnaire respondents "feel" about their answers.
Lookers
While the personal computer industry has made great strides in function, form has largely been forsaken. Cabinets, monitors, keyboards, and mice are still beige and bland. We may be buying brand-new Ferraris but, for the most part, they still look like 1985 Ford Lasers.
Some new systems - such as Emachines' E-One and high-end, all-in-one systems like NEC's Z1 - exhibit cosmetic changes. Future concoctions may overhaul our perception of the PC by taking the machine out of the box. Intel, for instance, is touting the Ottoman PC, a home PC that packs a Pentium III system, a flip-up LCD, and a wireless keyboard into a funky footstool that's "inherently suitable next to any sofa or chair". Meanwhile, printer manufacturer Lexmark has partnered with a fine arts university in the US to design a future office work space. Among its stylish components: a see-through monitor, a folding wireless keyboard (which looks like a high-tech handbag) that you can tote around the office and use with any PC, a printer that sprays paper as well as ink from its cartridges, and a smart desk that senses your arrival and adjusts itself to your height.
Someday these gizmos may become a reality. In the meantime, as long as computers continue to get smaller, faster, and more affordable, we shouldn't complain.
