What business doesn't want to be the next Amazon. com? Lots of companies are vying for the spot, though consumer retail space online has got a lot more crowded since Jeff Bezos turned his shoestring operation into "the world's biggest bookstore". Without a doubt, every new startup and garage geek on the planet is hoping to rake in millions through e-commerce. Not everyone will strike it rich, but one thing is certain: the electronic marketplace is on the verge of a tremendous growth spurt.
Forrester Research predicts that online retail sales will explode to $US184 billion a year by 2004, up from $US20 billion in 1999. "[The market is] going to be big," says Lisa Allen, an analyst at Forrester. She pauses for effect. "It's going to be really big."
VR Shopping
Not only will the variety and volume of products you can buy over the Net continue to expand, but your entire experience of online shopping will evolve, as well. Think virtual reality is only for games? In the future, you may stroll the aisles for a lug wrench at Mitre10 or finger the threads at Saks Fifth Avenue, all without leaving the comfort of your own home. Indeed, services such as these are already being tested by some stores.
As bandwidth into the home increases, e-commerce could develop into far more than a point-and-click experience. Covad, a US-based provider of high-speed digital subscriber line (DSL) services, sees a day when companies will buy bandwidth in bulk, and trade it to consumers in exchange for their loyalty. "The company could communicate over a live video feed to a customer's house," says Abhi Engle, Covad's broadband product manager. Real estate firms, for instance, could offer clients streaming video "walk-throughs" of new houses, a service impossible without broadband. And because DSL is an "always-on" technology, consumers won't have to dial up to shop.
Must-buy TV
Inter-active TV, already in the test stage, is another growing e-commerce avenue. Mark Schmidt, director of marketing for IBM's home networking unit, pictures remote-control consoles with built-in flat screens that will allow you to watch your favourite shows and order the products featured in them. Imagine watching The X-Files and being able to buy the shirt right off Mulder's back.
"We're very close to having a touch-screen monitor that you could carry around the house with you," says Mark Dwight, a product line manager at Cisco Systems. He envisions a "flat, smooth tablet" networked to other appliances in the home and jacked into the Web. "It takes [shopping by catalogue in bed] to the next level," he says.
As for the look of future online stores, tomorrow's shopping experience is likely to be more visually exciting and interactive. Forget about bland, 2D Web displays of widgets and bolts. Instead, look to companies like the Sharper Image (www.sharperimage.com) whose site features a 3D image of a CD player, which you can grab with your mouse, flip around to view from all sides, and even open up, to take a peek under the lid.
It won't be long before US fashion retail icons Gap or Lands' End let you upload a scanned photo of yourself to their sites, then produces a scaled 3D image of you from that photo. You could then "dress" your model in various outfits to assess the style, size or colour before buying.
After that, it's only a short step before you find yourself virtually strolling the aisles of an online car dealership and kicking the tyres of that 4WD you've been eyeing.
